New London Protocol Proposal to Regulate Marine Geoengineering

Australia, Nigeria, and South Korea have jointly proposed amendments to the London Protocol (LP) that would formally extend the instrument's remit beyond ocean fertilization to include other possible forms of marine geoengineering (such as enhanced weathering or ocean liming).  The proposal defines "marine geoengineering" broadly as "deliberate intervention in the marine environment to manipulate natural processes, including to counteract anthropogenic climate change and/or its impacts, and that has the potential for widespread, long-lasting or severe effects."  A new annex to the Protocol would serve as a "positive list" specifying particular geoengineering techniques to be regulated under the LP; techniques not included on this list would remain subject to the regime's general prohibition on dumping of materials at sea.  The only activity listed in the proposed annex is ocean fertilization, which would continue to be permitted only in cases of "legitimate scientific research."  The proposal also includes a generic assessment framework (modeled on the existing Assessment Framework for ocean fertilization--see LC/LP Agrees on Ocean Fertilization Assessment Framework, 10/19/10) intended to serve as the basis for more specific frameworks used to arrive at permitting decisions for other geoengineering approaches added to the annex in the future.

In essence, this proposal establishes a procedural mechanism for regulating any geoengineering technique involving the introduction of materials to the sea, based on processes previously developed to address ocean fertilization.  Since the proposal takes the form of amendments to the London Protocol, if it is adopted, regulations covering ocean fertilization and other technologies would be legally binding rather than voluntary, as is currently the case with respect to operative resolutions on ocean fertilization.  Parties to the LC/LP will take up the proposal at a meeting this October.

UAE Accelerates Cloud Seeding

In recent months the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has dramatically increased the pace of cloud seeding operations.  Although the government launched a small-scale rainfall enhancement program ten years ago that grew gradually over the past decade, the number of cloud seeding flights in 2013 already surpasses all operations in 2012 by more than 30 percent.  In the month of April alone, the UAE's National Center for Meteorology and Seismology (NCMS) conducted 47 separate missions.  Operations typically involve four airplanes firing flares containing salt crystals (potassium chloride and sodium chloride) in an attempt to induce increased rainfall.  The government is seeking to boost dwindling water supplies in the desert country.

Haida Fighting Back, Preparing for More Fertilization

After having data and samples related to its 2012 OIF dumping expedition seized by Environment Canada last month (see Haida Investigation Proceeding in Canada, 3/30), the Haida Salmon Restoration Corporation (HSRC) has struck back with a legal motion to suspend the federal search warrants authorizing the seizures.  Lawyers affiliated with HSRC argue that the March raids were unconstitutional since there is no Canadian law applicable to ocean iron fertilization.  Environment Canada has responded that ocean fertilization is indeed illegal under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act.

The HSRC is anxious for the return of these materials because it regards them as necessary for the conduct of a baseline study in May followed by a second round of dumping in June.  "But I can't see them getting away with this again," says Jim Thomas of ETC Group.  Hopefully the irony of an organization that views itself as a prime defender of indigenous rights, accusing a First Nations company of deception and illegality, is not entirely lost on the group.

Washington State Report Weighs in on CDR Techniques

Sweetening the Waters, a recent report on ocean acidification commissioned by the Washington state government, offers brief assessments of several CDR technologies as possible carbon sequestration methods.  Its primary focus in this regard is ocean iron fertilization (OIF), not surprising given Washington's proximity to Haida Gwaii in British Columbia.  In the view of the report's author,

No one in the scientific community (as opposed to "rogue geoengineer" Russ George) seems to argue that ocean iron fertilization is ready for commercial implementation yet.  Many believe that it deserves and demands more ocean trials, especially following the EIFEX results.  At some point they will have to consider more than the iron in the diatoms' diet--and reconsider not just the desirability but the feasibility of stimulating sinking plankton blooms. (p. 45)

The report also considers enhanced weathering: "Accelerated weathering seems a promising concept, especially when coupled with marine carbonate mitigation.  It may be ready to move from the laboratory to real-world trials.  But however much Washington's waters might benefit from such efforts, the economics don't favor them here as much as in other states" (pp. 46-47).  The document provides no new insights, but it does reflect the continuing spread of geoengineering concepts at the subnational level.

Haida Investigation Proceeding in Canada

The enforcement branch of Environment Canada has reportedly executed search warrants in its ongoing investigation of last summer's Haida ocean fertilization experiment (for background, see Loan Documents Shed Additional Light on HSRC Project, 10/23/12).  The department maintains that the Haida Salmon Restoration Corporation (HSRC) did not submit an application for approval to conduct its iron fertilization activities, as required by law.  But leaders of the Village of Old Massett, who created and control HSRC, continue to fight back against outside criticism--in the words of Chief Councillor Ken Rea, "After all the uproar, based on a whole bunch of inflammatory mischaracterized words, after calling it illegal, calling it dumping, calling it rogue and not having any of the evidence to back up their statements, none of it, they have no evidence to back all these statements up, we have it." Meanwhile, residents of Skidegate, the other major Haida community in British Columbia, are distancing themselves from Old Massett, blaming HSRC for ruining their green reputation.

European Commission Split on How to Advance CCS

Last summer, the European Commission declared its intention to select two or three European CCS projects for major awards by the end of 2012 under the EU's NER300 funding program (see Update on NER300, 8/10/12).  But these first round funding plans fell apart in December, after the Commission was unable to persuade any Member State to provide the required 50 percent cost share for candidate projects.  Faced with this setback, the Commission shifted the entire €275 million ($357.8 million) dedicated to CCS under the program to the second and final NER300 funding round, with final award decisions expected by the end of 2013.

Now, with national governments apparently unwilling to support projects, and funding levels much lower than originally anticipated (since they are based on sales of ETS emission allowances, which plummeted in value following adoption of the NER300 funding framework), Brussels is considering other ways to propel CCS forward in Europe.  According to a draft "communication" currently circulating within the Commission, given the moribund state of the European carbon market, "there is no rational case for economic operators to invest in CCS," and "it is unrealistic to assume that industry will commit the appropriate investments to CCS projects."  Rather than relying on ETS-based NER300 funding, the draft proposes alternative strategies to promote CCS uptake, including emissions performance standards for power plants and tradable CCS certificates akin to renewable energy certificates (RECs).  The performance standards proposed by the UK as part of its Electricity Market Reform (EMR) initiative (see Electricity Market Reform in the UK, 12/9/12) are singled out as a potential model for the rest of the EU.  However, the Directorate-General for Climate Action reportedly opposes releasing the communication and triggering a public consultation, preferring instead to drive CCS deployment through the ETS carbon market.

CCS performance standards is a good idea whose time has come.  The ETS has manifestly failed to deliver CCS to Europe, either through cap-and-trade carbon prices or as a source of capital funding.  Despite proposals to bolster allowance prices by "backloading" auctions to temporarily restrict supply, the ETS is clearly too weak to overcome the cost constraints inherent to carbon capture.  Short of a robust carbon tax, emissions performance standards offer the best way to ensure widespread adoption of CCS technology and deployment of integrated systems (for more, see Calls Intensify for More Global Action on CCS, 5/16/12).  The climate directorate should drop its objections and support the new proposals from the Commission.

Two New Studies Underline Need for Research Now

Two recently published articles underscore the need for aggressive funding of solar geoengineering research, including field experiments, as quickly as possible.  The first, by Valerie Livina and Tim Lenton, presents a convincing case that the Earth has already passed a planetary tipping point, namely, the cratering of Arctic sea-ice volume and extent widely reported in summer 2007.  According to the authors, this contraction marked not only a record low (since surpassed--see Call for Immediate Arctic Deployment Dismissed by UK Parliamentary Committee, 9/24/12), but a transition to a new, reduced, less stable state.  Data since 2007 suggest that sea-ice has shifted permanently to this new equilibrium--as Lenton describes it, "This wasn't a one-off, it was a permanent change."

The second study affirms recent climatic changes but also highlights the ameliorative potential of stratospheric aerosols.  A team at the University of Colorado Boulder has demonstrated that sulfur emissions from relatively small volcanoes worked to suppress global average temperature increases between 2000 and 2010.  Approximately one quarter of the warming that would have taken place over this period was likely offset by sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere derived from these eruptions.  "This new study indicates it is emissions from small to moderate volcanoes that have been slowing the warming of the planet," says lead author Ryan Neely.  Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, by comparison, is regarded as a large volcano.

Meanwhile, the sequester has struck Washington, and there is no new information on possible geoengineering research funding (see Obama Administration Considering Possible Research Funding, 1/29).